RiskScape 2.0 made its international debut at a workshop preceding the International Conference on Urban Disaster Resilience in Palu, Sulawesi, on 24 April 2019. RiskScape is an impact and loss modelling tool that performs complex calculations quickly and simply, providing outputs that assist in decision-making.
The workshop was a full-day event, covering the concepts of risk and impact modelling, the evolution of RiskScape from version 1 to 2, and using RiskScape 2.0 to assess building impacts from a tsunami affecting the coastal areas of Palu. The tsunami hazard modelling used was an approximation of the inundation extent of the 28 September 2018 tsunami, which devastated the coastal areas of Palu and Donggala. Approximately 30 participants from diverse backgrounds, including the Universitas Tadulako, Universitas Gadjah Mada and Palu City local government, attended the workshop.
Depending on user preferences, the RiskScape software was provided in two languages: English and Bahasa Indonesia. Participants came prepared with their own laptops. The current version of RiskScape is a command line interface, which requires users to type in commands rather than interact with a graphical user interface (planned for development later this year). Despite the learning curve, participants were able to successfully run the software and visualise the results using GIS software.
The workshop was not only the first time RiskScape 2.0 had been used outside New Zealand, but the first time it had been demonstrated and used beyond the research and development teams. Participants were highly engaged throughout the day, and there was significant interest in how the software could assist with decision-making. The case study of tsunami inundation in Palu served as a useful example of the applicability of the tool to the local context.
The StIRRRD team was in Rawa Indah, Seluma, Bengkulu Province to initiate a tsunami awareness community project. Rawa Indah is a village of about 2500 people located on the broad coastal plain of Seluma and is at risk from tsunami, with no nearby high ground suitable for evacuation. In 2014, BNPB (the National Emergency Management Agency), with the assistance of international development aid and the National Public Works, built a 16-m high tsunami shelter near the village. Responsibility for the shelter has only recently been passed to the local emergency management agency, Seluma BPBD. Little or no work to improve community awareness of tsunami hazard, possible natural warnings or the function of the shelter has been undertaken, and the Seluma BPBD do not have the capacity to maintain the shelter or carry out extensive consultation. As a result, the condition of the shelter has deteriorated.
This initial visit (27 Feb – 1 Mar 2018) of the StIRRRD team was to get to know the people, gain an understanding of their current level of tsunami awareness, and help them to understand the risk associated with this significant hazard.
Ultimately, the community will develop their own evacuation plan and develop ongoing tsunami awareness centred around better use of the tsunami shelter for village activities. Students from the UNIB (University of Bengkulu) undertook a survey with more than 100 residents, to gauge tsunami awareness and preparedness. With the help of the local Red Cross (PMI), BPBD and UNIB, the team spent a day in the local school discussing hazards, tsunami, preparedness and action with 300 school children as well with the teachers. UNIB also built, and bought with them, a tsunami wave model tank which demonstrates tsunami formation and potential impacts.
University Gadjah Mada (UGM) flew an aerial survey and took video of the village surrounds.
A good relationship has been established with the head of the village Pak Rubimanto, and he and his family, and the villagers generously hosted members of the team for 3 nights. Village leaders are extremely keen to be involved and want to utilise the shelter as best they can, and instigate other awareness and preparedness initiatives that the StIRRRD team will help facilitate.
It is intended that nearby villages with a similar risk from tsunami will also benefit from this project, as it will provide a template for the development of other evacuation plans. By working closely with BPBD and PMI, it is anticipated that the capacity of these agencies to assist other villages will improve.
Phase 2 of the engagement in April 2018 will involve some workshops and meetings with key village groups and responsible agencies and continued engagement with the school. It is also planned to hold an information drop-in session in the tsunami shelter on a Saturday, where the draft tsunami plan can be discussed, followed by a movie night. The third phase, later in the year will include a whole of village evacuation simulation and a repeat questionnaire survey.
For some, it wasn’t easy to get to Palu for the Risk Modelling training conducted in Palu 19 – 23 October 2015. Smoke from wild fires closed Palu Airport, and a few participants, and some of the training team missed the first day. Contingency planning wasn’t in place for such an event. Perhaps the economic losses and disruption to people from wild fire in Indonesia could be included in the future risk modelling. Tragically, some hikers died in a wild fire in Java on the day before the workshop. Flights were cancelled many times during our week here and we weren’t sure we were going to get flights out.
The training was facilitated by members of the RiskScape team Kate Crowley (NIWA), Sheng-Lin Lin and Mostafa Nayyerloo (GNS Science) along with members of the StIRRRD team from UGM ( Agung Setianto, Iman Satyarno, Wahyu Wilopo). Gumbert Maylda Pratarma from UGM provided able logistic support.
About 40 participants attended the training coming from the 4 universities that are part of StIRRRD project; Tadulako University (UNTAD), Andalas University (UNAND), Mataram University (UNRAM), and Bengkulu University (UNIB), and from the Emergency Management, Planning, and Public Works offices of Palu, Donggala, and Morowali, Padang, Agam, Kota Bengkulu and Mataram.
The training started with the fundamentals of Risk – Hazards, the exposed Assets (buildings, infrastructure and people) and the interaction between the assets and population and the hazards, known as the Vulnerability. RiskScape is the tool that combines these to calculate the impacts of hazard events in terms of damage and casualties, and the trainees were given a quick look at how the tool works.
To reinforce risk fundamentals, group exercises were used to discuss how risk modelling could support DRR activities in their districts and to list the possible impacts of hazards on the exposed assets.
For the more technical minded, a look under the hood of RiskScape enabled them to see how hazard layers and vulnerability functions can be loaded into the tool. Concurrently, the remainder discussed the development of hazard values and the basics of developing measures of vulnerability.
This led into a discussion about the asset information required, including building and infrastructure attributes and typology, as well as population data, and involved a demonstration of the RiACT tool (Real Time Asset Collection Tool), to be used the next day in the field exercise. Being in Palu, Tadulako University had helped with organising the training, and had gathered significant asset data prior to the workshop using paper forms, the results of this survey presented by Dr Ketut of Tadulako University.
The following morning one half of the group went into the streets of Palu, armed with tablets to collect asset data using the RiACT tool. They collected 75 assets in 2 hours work and downloaded them to a database server.
The remaining group worked through RiskScape tutorials and discussed ‘what if’ scenarios. They also came up with questions/scenarios that they might wish to have modelled in RiskScape to assist in Risk Reduction investment, and the data they would need to do so. These scenarios provided the basis of RiskScape Indonesia action plans to be developed later in the training. The groups swapped sessions the following morning.
Using the data they had collected, and earthquake hazard scenario and vulnerability functions from New Zealand, a Palu earthquake scenario was modelled using RiskScape.
The final sessions of the workshop were devoted to developing actions to take the training forward to develop and model the scenarios developed through the workshop. These will require collaboration between the district government departments and the universities involved. Tadulako University and Palu indicated they had data and resources and were ready to go, especially with the asset data collection.
Via the network established here, risk modelling in Indonesia can be developed and inform Disaster Risk Reduction decisions and investment.
Part of the StIRRRD team spent last week in Kota Bengkuku, Sumatra running an DRR Action Plan Workshop and renewing contacts in the Kota. The aim of this visit was to facilitate the production of a draft DRR action plan for Kota Bengkulu. The draft plan was developed during the course of the workshop by participants from local government, NGOs, Bengkulu University and volunteer organisations.
The first day was largely taken up with technical presentations including introducing the tectonic setting of western Sumatra, the regional geology, the earthquake and tsunami hazard, using GIS to map hazard and risk, coastal erosion, flooding and landsliding.
We’re back in Donggala, Central Sulawesi, following on from our introductory visit here in November 2014.
This time we’ve worked with local government staff and NGOs to develop a natural hazard risk reduction action plan for Donggala. To prepare for the action plan we first discussed Donggala’s hazards, risks and current risk reduction practices and discussed a range of risk reduction options. As well as StIRRRD team expertise in earthquake engineering, landslide early warning systems, GIS mapping, social science and risk reduction expertise, we also included in our team river flood and debris flow management expertise from local government in New Zealand (James Flanagan and Michael Goldsmith) and tsnuami expert Gegar Prasetya.
Part of the StIRRRD team was recently back to Mataram, in the island of Lombok, in the West Nusa Tenggara province. Last year’s introductory visit highlighted main issues around vulnerability to coastal erosion, floods, earthquakes and tsunami. This year, we came back to run a DRR Action Plan workshop with our local BPBD partners, officials and local university. Aside the usual suspects from UGM, GNS Science and NZ MFAT, the StIRRRD team was joined by former-GNS tsunami expert Gegar Prasetya and flood expert James Flanagan from the Wellington Regional Council.
The StIRRRD team arrived in Palu on 9 November 2014 to kick-off the StIRRRD Activity. Palu is the capital of the Province of Central Sulawesi and is quite a large city with a population of about 350,000. The active Palu-Koro Fault has shaped the landscape, with earthquakes, landslides, and debris flows a common occurrence.